Daoda investment notes: GEM refers to continued soaring stocks speculation is about to be lively

Daoda investment notes: GEM refers to continued soaring stocks speculation is about to be lively
Source: Daily Economic News Yesterday, the Shanghai Index fell slightly by 8.44 points to 3031.Closed at 23 o’clock, the decline was 0.28%.However, the strongest GEM index continued to surge 37.33 points to 2263.It closed at 97 points, an increase of up to 1.68%.Shanghai’s turnover was 451.6 billion, and Shenzhen’s turnover was 7704.600 million yuan, the total turnover of the two cities was 12220.6 trillion, a new high since November 17, 2015.  It may be that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has begun to spread in some countries, so the global stock market almost fell yesterday. Why can the A-share market stand alone?  In-depth analysis Last Friday, the three major Wall Street stock indexes began to plummet.Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.78%, the Nasdaq index fell as high as 1.79%, the S & P 500 index fell by 1.05%.Yesterday morning, the South Korean stock index plummeted by 3.87%, Thai stock index plunged 2.61%.In addition, the Hong Kong stock market Hang Seng Index plunged 487.93 points to 26820.It closed at 88 points and fell by 1.79%; Hang Seng State-owned Enterprise Index fell 222.51 points to 10568.It closed at 33 points, with a drop of 2.06%.Yesterday afternoon, the Italian FTSE index futures fell 4%, and the British FTSE index futures also fell by 1 at a time.6%.  Perhaps due to the impact of the overseas market’s plunge, there was a reduction in the size of the Northbound Fund and the replacement of the net worth yesterday. According to the data of the Oriental Fortune Network, the Shanghai Stock Exchange replaced the net 36.9.9 billion yuan, the Shenzhen Stock Connect decreased by 22.5.6 billion yuan, a net reduction of 59.5.5 billion yuan.This is also the most obvious day since February this year when the northbound funds net exceeded.  Why is the global stock market plunging, but the performance of the A-share market is so strong, giving people a sense of leadership?  First of all, as far as the epidemic situation is concerned, the current overall expectations are gradually changing, and are significantly different from other countries’ rankings. Second, the market’s strong performance since February has gradually raised investor confidence.At the same time, the regulatory policies introduced in advance will also help the market to strengthen; in addition, the scale of new fund offerings provides sufficient “bullets” for the market to strengthen.According to media reports, as of February 22, 117 funds were newly established in 2020, with a share of 2,305.4.3 billion copies, significantly exceeding the same period in 2018 and 2019.Among them, equity funds have issued shares since 1983.1.8 billion copies, accounting for 74% of the total fund issue.  Is the current 佛山桑拿网 market a bull market?We are not conclusive.A research report released by Guotai Junan yesterday pointed out that with the 2015 ranking, there have been four major changes in the A-share market: one is that after five years, the expectation of “regulatory deregulation + interest rate cuts” appears again; the second is that the current risk substitution has begunSignificantly improved, but there is still room for ranking in 2015; the third is the three major incremental funds slowly entering the market.These three aspects of incremental funds include northbound funds, redistribution of social wealth from lower bank wealth management returns, and the large-scale issuance of the new funds we mentioned above. Fourth, the current technology stock market has profit support, which is similar to 2015.There are obvious differences.Five 佛山桑拿网 years ago, technology stocks mainly relied on outbound mergers and acquisitions, and there was a bubble.Guotai Junan pointed out that 2014?In 2015, the net profit growth rate of the technology sector attributable to mothers increased rapidly by 56% and 26%, but the profit growth rate was only -2% and 0%, reflecting that the issuance replaced all profit growth, so it was essentially a virtual extension of M & A.prosperity.Guotai Junan expects that the growth rate of net profit of the technology sector attributable to mothers will rise to 24% in 2020, and the growth rate of EPS will reach about 17%.  The sand table deduced that A-shares were still very strong yesterday. After the Shanghai index adjusted to the 5th line, it rebounded. The GEM index continued to rise and hit a record high, mainly due to strong technology stocks such as large fund concepts and 5G communications.  From the general direction of the strategy, we still can’t bearish easily, we can continue to be bullish.Because the rhythm of the A-share market is obviously different from that of overseas markets, and the attractions of A-shares are also one after another.  The latest news shows that smart cars may become a new hot spot again.According to media reports, the “Smart Vehicle Innovation and Development Strategy” jointly issued by 11 ministries and commissions such as the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has been exposed, which has caused widespread concern in the entire smart car industry chain.The document proposes that the basic composition of China’s standard smart car framework will be achieved in 2025, and that smart cars with conditional autonomous driving will achieve large-scale production, and highly autonomous smart cars will be marketed in specific environments.  Therefore, for the market outlook, I think the stock speculation will be more lively.According to the broader market, we will continue to pay attention to the situation of overseas epidemics and the trend of overseas capital markets. If the external market continues to fall, it may have some impact on A shares in the short term. How big is this impact, can the A stock market hold it, orStep by step.  CSI 300 Index Position Reference Yesterday Position: 60% Today’s Position Plan: 61%. This position is a non-solid position reference based on trend research. It is not used as a basis for trading. Please pay attention to investment risks.  Second, the target of this position tracking is the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, in order to track the changes in the index, to avoid the effect of differences in open stocks. (Zhang Daoda)

Shennan Circuit (002916): Total revenue exceeded 20 billion mark within five years and profit elasticity was greater than revenue

Shennan Circuit (002916): Total revenue exceeded 20 billion mark within five years and profit elasticity was greater than revenue

Event: 2018 revenue of 7.6 billion, + 33% annually, net profit attributable to mother 6.

97 ppm, ten years + 55%.

Q4 single quarter revenue 22.

0.6 billion, + 8% MoM, + 53% in ten years, net profit 2.

2.5 billion, previous + 106%, + 17% MoM.

The analysis is as follows: Q4 reached a new high in a single quarter, and the number and price of datacom PCBs increased. The reasons for the increase in performance include four aspects: PCB, IC carrier board, and electronic assembly have achieved steady growth in three businesses; communications, industrial medical care, and servers.The demand for PCBs increased due to the sales of downstream products; Nantong’s smart manufacturing plant climbed more than expected, and its production rate gradually increased. It shifted from major defective products in the early stage to high-value products, and automation brought about a shortened cross-linking period.The promotion and reduction of labor, the monthly output value in December is about 50-60 million yuan, and the current crop rate is about 80%. It was originally expected to break even in the fourth quarter and extended in the first three quarters, but in fact Q4 profit was more than 10 million;The capacity will be further expanded; the report gradually introduces a long-term equity incentive plan, which improves the overall operating efficiency, and the team has set a model for internal optimization of state-owned assets.

On the customer side, orders from customers such as ZTE and Ericsson continued to grow; Huawei’s order structure was optimized; the carrier board business gradually introduced customers of storage products; industrial control medical services, servers and other customers saw significant growth.

At present, the new project in Wuxi is at the stage of mechanical and electrical installation, and it is planned to start production at the end of June. The customer system certification has also begun. The carrier board project is one of the company’s major sources of growth in the medium and long term.

In Q4, the gross profit margin and net profit margin in the single quarter increased by approximately 1 percentage point from the previous quarter.

The growth of gross profit margin mainly comes from the improvement of product structure and production line efficiency. The company’s subsequent downstream customer upgrades of 4G products, service storage, and industrial control medical products gradually introduce new customers and new technologies. 5G & pre5G began to invest a small amount, which spurred the company’s product added value.Overall improvement; at the cost side, the company’s high-layer PCB and carrier board yields are stable, and individual series of products have been improved, such as steel flexible bonding boards, storage boards for carrier boards, PCBs with more than 20 layers, and new generation communication products.In addition, the new factory automated production line has brought about two major cost reductions: direct labor (reduced labor and increased production, 24-hour operation) and direct materials (reduced scrap rate).

At the same time, the price of copper clad laminates is in the bonus period. After the capacity is gradually released, the procurement costs gradually decrease, especially the domestic copper clad laminate suppliers continue to grow in the high-frequency and high-speed field.

In addition, the Q4 company has no expansion project, the cost accrual is reduced, and the operating rate is increased to dilute costs.

The demand for telecommunications PCBs has a long span and large elasticity, and high barrier business enjoys a fine pattern. It is about to enter a sweet period of industry outbreak: in the second half of 2018, the throughput of base stations in mainland China increased by more than 50%, and the global 4G penetration rate was less than half.4G’s continued deployment, upgrades, and expansion are the main sources of demand for telecommunications PCBs.

In addition, 2019 is the first year of 5G-scale pre-commercialization in China and the world, and equipment has begun to place orders. The construction plan of the IoT base station in mainland China also brings supplementary demand.

Benefiting from the high growth of Internet traffic, the penetration of cloud computing, the global server expansion volume has increased rapidly for nearly 9 quarters, and the global Internet giants ‘capital expenditure continued to increase in the fourth quarter of 2018. We believe that although the volume of server volume will increase in 2019,It will be slightly extreme, but it will still maintain a positive growth trend.

There are four major barriers to communications PCB products: equipment, technology, capital, 苏州桑拿网 customers, seven major technical difficulties such as backplane production, and some solutions involve the company’s own patents, at least requiring experienced personnel, transformed equipment, andThe running-in production line, the stable yield of mass production and compliance with the requirements of profitability can not be achieved in a short time by buying equipment for trial production. This is basically applicable to products with more than 16 floors and more than 3,000 yuan / square meter.

The main players in the military high-layer board market are foreign companies, such as New Mayer, ISU, TTM, etc. These companies have stalled or are in a state of dislocation due to scattered distribution and investment expectations. Shennan Hudian Dongshan is a domestic investorFor scarce players, it is difficult for 北京桑拿洗浴保健 privately-owned private companies to enter the bureau in the short term. In the first two years when the penetration rate of new generation communication equipment gradually increased, the industry status and relative stability of Shennan Circuits. This year, orders from customers such as Ericsson have increased significantly.It is predicted that by 2022, the global PCB market in the telecommunications category will have a market space of 13.7 billion U.S. dollars, assuming that Shennan doubles its current market share to 10%, corresponding to about 9.5 billion yuan in revenue.

The national team of the IC carrier board is gradually exerting its strength. The increase in localization rate brings 7 billion yuan in incremental revenue. In terms of IC carrier board, the company is an enterprise with scarce domestic capital and passing the technical ability test and certification of major customers.Up to now, the memory chip capacity of 300,000 pieces / month corresponds to about 3.

The IC carrier board capacity is 80,000 to 40,000 square meters per month, and the average price is between 2600 to 3,000 yuan per square meter.

According to preliminary statistics, the total capacity of the existing and expanded large-scale IDM memory chip production lines in mainland China is about 830,000 pieces / month, of which 350,000 pieces / month are currently under construction and 470,000 pieces / month are under construction.

Looking at the demand for IC substrates corresponding to these capacities, based on the results of industry research, the total demand for IC substrates corresponding to storage and production lines under construction and construction in mainland China is about 10.

70,000 square meters per month, or 1.28 million square meters per year, corresponding to a market space of about 3.6 billion square meters per year.

The global carrier board market is approximately USD 7.5 billion, with a leading market share of approximately 15%, corresponding to approximately RMB 7.8 billion in revenue. At present, Shennan ‘s market share in the overall IC carrier board market is less than 2%, with a growth of approximately RMB 6-7 billion.space.

The competitive advantages of Shennan’s carrier board business compared to the traditional top ten (accounting for 80% of the carrier board market) are mainly reflected in cost and price, nearest response, capital, and the necessity of localization of core industries.

Domestic replacements must replace the semiconductor down cycle from scratch.

A model for optimizing the internal efficiency of conventional assets. In the long run, there is still room for multiples of revenue: the company’s comparative advantage lies mainly in technology research and development accumulation, customer barriers, talent teams, and further improved automated production capabilities.

The long-term equity incentive plan launched by Democracy, the automation factory selected by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, etc., show that the company’s management efficiency has gradually improved, and it is a model enterprise of “industry luck itself capable” in state-owned capital.

In the long run, the company ‘s IC carrier board still has 7 billion U.S. dollars in incremental revenue space. With reference to Xinxing, Jingshuo and other carrier board leaders, it took about 8-12 years from investment to growth into a global leader, considering the support of ShennanBetter capital, talents and infrastructure environment, we assume that Shennan will complete this goal in 8 years, and the company will start to deliver the carrier board business in batches after the factory relocation in 2015, which is to complete this goal in 2023, and the revenue will reach about 85 Ten thousand yuan.

In 2023, according to the market space data of civilian government agencies, we conservatively assume that Shenzhen’s market share will reach 10%, or 9.5 billion yuan.

The total revenue of the two block businesses is about 180 trillion.

Automotive board, industrial control medical, and aerospace. The global market space will be about 17 billion US dollars (prismark) by 2023. It is assumed that Shennan’s market share in these three areas will maintain the current market share of the global PCB market in 2018.About 1.

5%, which is about 1.8 billion yuan in revenue.

Electronic equipment assembly follows the calculation of 900 million revenues in 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 10%, and approximately 1.4 billion revenues by 2023.

Calculated in this way, by 2023, the company’s total revenue will be about 95 + 85 + 18 + 14 = 21.2 billion, with a compound growth rate of 23% in 2018-2023. Based on a net interest rate of 11% (product upgrades, automated expansion of management scale and efficiency)The profit was 2.3 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 28% in 2018-2023.

Investment suggestion: Net profit is expected to be 6 in 18-20 years.



5 billion, EPS2.4/3.


4 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 49.



0X, giving a 45X estimate for 2019, with a target price of 148 yuan and a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: downstream demand is lower than expected; new capacity expansion exceeds expectations.

Suntec Technology (002815): Pay attention to the possibility of technological breakthroughs leading to track upgrades

Suntec Technology (002815): Pay attention to the possibility of technological breakthroughs leading to track upgrades

The main points of investment have successfully transitioned from a small batch leader to a large batch with a bright future.

The company is a leader in the domestic PCB industry for small batch boards. With its professional market positioning and years of technology and experience, it has formed a unique, effective service model and the ability to quickly respond to customer needs.

The company has a high level of refined management and flexible manufacturing, an excellent level of ERP and management, and an excellent production process, so the level of production efficiency and cost control is higher than its peers.

The three items of per capita salary, per capita output value and per capita profit are at the forefront of the domestic PCB industry. Per capita profit and per capita output value continue to increase, and production efficiency continues to increase.

The company successfully entered the field of medium and large-volume boards in recent years: the increase in orders for medium and large-volume boards has driven the company’s average unit area to continue to increase in recent years, from 6 in 2013.

68 square meters / single increased to 9 in 2016.

4 square meters / single.

70% of the company’s new orders in 2018 were medium and large-volume orders, marking the company’s successful transformation into the medium and large-volume market.

5G and the PCB industry resonate, and the company’s future orders are of high quality.

The 5G era has brought new growth in the PCB downstream industry, and 5G base stations have also brought explosive growth in high-frequency boards.

Taking advantage of the 5G storm, the company uses its technical barriers and cost advantages accumulated in deep cultivation of high-end PCB products. 5G base station and other related products have made good progress in research and development, with high value and high product barriers.

Acquisitions and investments go hand in hand, and the PCB industry is fully deployed.

The company further acquires Sandeguan and Punoway, and the product layout is expanded to FPC, MEMS PCB and light sensors, further enriching the company’s existing products.

Leveraging the technological advantages and customer resources accumulated in the FPC and PCB professional fields by Suntec and Punoway, it has quickly opened up market segments, and accordingly entered the downstream PCB field such as automotive electronics and consumer electronics to gain new opportunities for profit growth.

At the same time, the company wholly established Nantong Chongdada Company and invested in the research and development and production of IC substrates, combining its advantages in fine management and customer 杭州桑拿网 resources, quickly establishing barriers to entry, and further improving the layout of high-end industrial lines.

PCB capacity shifted eastward, and export business moved forward steadily.

As an export-oriented company, Suntech exports more than 70% of its products overseas, of which 20% are American customers.

The company adopts FOB delivery method, and the increase of trade tax has little effect on the company’s profit.

In addition, the gap between the US downstream industry demand and the upstream and upstream PCB supply scissors has gradually widened, increasing the bargaining power of mainland Chinese PCB manufacturers.

In addition, the company has more than 1,100 customers worldwide, distributed in multiple countries and regions, and reached long-term and stable cooperative relations, which helps to share the company’s export risks in the changing global trade pattern.

Recently, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar broke through 7, and exports are favorable.

Investment suggestion: The overall trend of PCB global production capacity transfer to land capital is clear, the company’s strong position in 5G and other high-margin businesses is expanded, and the company is committed to introducing an increasingly competitive market share of product competitiveness; the company plans steadily and aggressively, Jiangmen and ZhuhaiThe progress of the project is in line with expectations; the internal operating advantages provide protection for the company’s profitability.

We expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/20206.


600 million, the current corresponding PE is 22x / 17x.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: environmental protection policy affects production capacity layout, production expansion progress is less than expected

Weixing New Materials (002372): Net return to motherhood increased by 14 year-on-year.

91% growth narrowed in single and second quarter

Weixing New Materials (002372): Net return to motherhood increased by 14 year-on-year.

91% growth narrowed in single and second 都市夜网 quarter

Event: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved revenue of 21.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 11 in ten years.

58%; net profit attributable to mothers4.

44 ppm, an increase of 14 years.

91%; net profit after deducting non-attribution to achieve 4.

16 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.


Affected by the weak growth of real estate completion, the growth rate in the second quarter narrowed quarter-on-quarter: The company’s first-quarter revenue increased by 17 last year due to a base increase last year.

89%; revenue in the second quarter alone reached 13.

24 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

16%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 3.

13 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

55%, revenue and profit growth rate hit the lowest level in the same period in five 佛山桑拿网 years.

In the first half of the year, the area of land completion projects fell by 12%, and the retail end demand for plastic pipes decreased. The company’s C-end revenue accounted for more than 70%. Therefore, the overall growth rate was affected by the industry threshold.

However, in the first half of the year, the company further stepped up its efforts to explore new markets, with revenues in the Northeast and the West increasing by 32.

81% and 20.


The tooling channel optimized the customer structure, and the overall gross profit margin increased by 0.

3 units: The company’s gross profit margin for the first half of the year was 46.

36%, a slight increase each year, of which PPR gross margin fell 0.

With 78 digits, the gross profit margin of PVC decreased by 0.

52 grades, PE gross margin increased by 4.

53 units.

The decline in gross profit margins of PPR and PVC was mainly due to a slight increase in raw material prices, while PE products were mainly supplied to tooling customers. In the first half of the year, the company proactively adjusted the structure of the B-end customer, proactively gave up the reduction of the billing period, and focused on customers with the highest unit price.Customers, therefore, although the PE business revenue fell, the gross profit margin increased significantly.

The tooling channel optimized the customer structure, and the overall gross profit margin increased by 0.

3 units: The company’s gross profit margin for the first half of the year was 46.

36%, a slight increase each year, of which PPR gross margin fell 0.

With 78 digits, the gross profit margin of PVC decreased by 0.

52 grades, PE gross margin increased by 4.

53 units.

The decline in gross profit margins of PPR and PVC was mainly due to a slight increase in raw material prices, while PE products were mainly supplied to tooling customers. In the first half of the year, the company proactively adjusted the structure of the B-end customer, proactively gave up the reduction of the billing period, and focused on customers with the highest unit price.Customers, therefore, although the PE business revenue fell, the gross profit margin increased significantly.

Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s revenue growth from 2019 to 2021 to be 13 respectively.

5%, 14.

2%, 14.

4%, net profit growth rate was 17 respectively.

0%, 17.9%, 17.

2%, continue to give Buy-A investment rating, with a target price of 17 in 6 months.

5 yuan.

Risk reminder: the growth rate of real estate completion is not as expected, and the expansion of new areas is not as expected

Rereading the leading series of Hailan House (600398): How to understand the company model and estimation-

Read again the leading series of Hailan House (600398): How to understand the company model and valuation?

Key points of the report Reexamination history: Estimated changes are highly related to the profit cycle Hailan House has grasped the historical changes in the relative excess of supplier resources and the rapid expansion of clothing branded consumption, and has rapidly risen and grown into the local public through the innovation of the previous gradual cooperation modelClothing leader.

Reviewing market performance, historical estimates have changed with operating conditions.

From a business model perspective, the front-end purchase contract returns and the terminal retail-oriented credit purchase model strengthen 深圳丝袜会所 the procyclical nature of the business, and the stability of the operation is based on the rapid expansion of the scale and the high sales overrun rate.

From a financial point of view, high ROE results from high profitability and high leverage. Among them, high net interest rate is externalized from the risk of slow-moving inventory and channel costs, and high equity multipliers are affected by high book payables.

Terminal growth stall will increase the market’s expected change in business stability and high ROE sustainability, so it is expected to give it an estimated discount.

Operational tracking: Has Hailan emerged from the adjustment?

After 16-17 years of consolidation of the main business, the stability of the operation of the main brand has increased.

For suppliers, measures such as tilting orders for core categories, optimizing order pacing, and improving the efficiency of chargeback have effectively eased returns and boosted their own profits.

For affiliates, the performance of initial investment gates under floating proportions has decreased, and investment returns have remained attractive despite changes, which translates to inefficient store clearance, and the stability of the affiliate system has improved significantly since 18 years.

For Hailan itself, the above adjustments at least force the company to improve the efficiency of the supply chain response, and also promote its increase in the proportion of self-operated procurement and strengthen the ability of product planning; at the same time, taking into account the proportion adjustment has realized the tilt of the industry chain’s profit towards itself, in order to incubateBrands provide preventive cash flow support.

Prospect discussion: How to treat Hailan’s medium-term growth?

During the transition period from the main brand to the mature stage, the growth momentum shifted from channel extension to the same-end store endogenous growth.

16 years of effective channel encryption has dragged down old store efficiency. The company used product upgrades and optimization of supply efficiency to improve sales accuracy. The store efficiency has improved since 17 years.

At the same time, actively explore new brands, lay out new markets, and establish a focus on the development of black whale HLA JEANS. Hailan is optimized. The new brand matrix within OVV promotes the improvement of the efficiency and profitability of Aiju Rabbit, boys and girls, and optimizes the positioning of AEX products.Development strategy, while expanding the Southeast Asian market development efforts, new business development prospects are worth looking forward to.

Pricing considerations: Finding estimates based on international comparisons to improve the stability of anchor Hailan’s main brand operation and the extension of medium-term growth directions will help lift potential long-term suppressive factors.

Based on international comparisons, we believe that local mass brand leaders are expected to enter the era of “deterministic premium”. The average reasonable estimate of Hailan House is 15-20 times, and there is a lot of room for repair.

The young coach took over and showed strong initiative in business performance such as channel upgrades and product optimization. At present, these businesses are running smoothly, and the second major growth of the apparel industry is expected.

Considering that the company’s average annual dividend ratio has exceeded 64% since the company was listed, and disclosed a share repurchase plan with an average annual net profit of 20-30% in 18-22, the yield advantage is obvious.

It is expected that in 18 years and 19 years, net profit attributable to mothers will be achieved.

9.3 billion, 36.

6.4 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.

78 yuan, 0.

82 yuan, the corresponding PE is 12.

27 times, 11.

70 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: 1. Channel encryption diverts the risk of old store sales; 2. Risks that the new brand promotion progress is less than expected.

Funeng shares (600483): Internal operating data meets expectations Haifeng project progresses steadily

Funeng shares (600483): Internal operating data meets expectations Haifeng project progresses steadily
The company disclosed its operating data for 2019: In the fourth quarter of 2019, the operating power plants of the company completed power generation in accordance with the consolidated statement caliber 51.3.7 billion kWh, a decline of 4 per year.57%; completed online power 48.7.5 billion kWh, a decline of 5 per year.01%.In 2019, the total power generation is 190.6.9 billion kilowatt-hours, a 10-year increase4.93%; completed online power of 180.8.2 billion kWh, an increase of 4 per year.72%. Most of the indicators occupied in the first three quarters are the breakdown of thermal power generation in the fourth quarter alone.The company’s thermal power generation in the fourth quarter totaled 43.4.1 billion kWh, a decline of 8 per year.53%.Among them, Hongshan Thermal Power has completed 17 generations.3.6 billion kWh, a decrease of 5.45%; Jinjiang Gas & Power has completed power generation5.3.7 billion kWh (excluding alternative electricity), a decrease of 23.29%; Liuzhi Power Plant completed 19.8.3 billion kWh, a decrease of 6.95%; quarterly power generation temporarily exceeded the main reason is that the first three quarters consumed most of most indicators.The company’s initial thermal power generation totaled 168.5.2 billion kWh, an increase of 3.62%.Among them, Hongshan Thermal Power has completed 70 generations.8.8 billion kWh, an increase of 1.23%; Jinjiang Gas & Power has completed 26.5.5 billion kWh (excluding alternative electricity), an increase of 1.22%; Liuzhi Power Plant completed 68 electricity generation.5.6 billion kWh, an increase of 6.84%.Except for the decline in Jinjiang Gas, Electricity and Gas prices (0.5957 yuan / kWh is temporarily 0.5906 yuan / kilowatt hour), the on-grid electricity prices of other branches are the same as in 18 years. In the early stage, wind power generation increased significantly, and the Haifeng project contributed some increase.The company’s wind power generation in the fourth quarter (windward period) was 7.9.4 billion kWh, an increase of 25.04%.Among them, Funeng New Energy has realized power generation7.2.5 billion kWh, an increase of 19.24%; Jinjiang Gas Power has achieved wind power generation of 0%.3.1 billion kWh, an increase of 14.81%.The company’s maximum wind power generation is 21.6.8 billion kWh, an increase of 16.25%.Among them, Funeng New Energy has achieved 20 power generation.2.6 billion kWh, an increase of 13.76%; Jinjiang Gas Power has achieved wind power generation of 0.9.6 billion kWh, an increase of 14.29%.The on-grid tariffs for wind power of various companies are the same as those of 18 years.At the end of the third quarter, the company’s Pinghai Bay and Shicheng Offshore Wind Power Project put into operation some units to contribute 0% of offshore wind power generation.4.6 billion kWh, the Internet price is zero.85 yuan / kWh (including tax).The installed capacity of the remaining projects in the Shicheng Formation and Pinghai Bay F area is expected to be separately started today and will continue to be put into production in batches in the next two years to increase wind power business performance.In addition, the company’s Changle Offshore Project (49.(80,000 kilowatts) has begun construction, and wind turbines are in the tender process. The company’s high-level heating business volume and price rose.The company’s quotation for the fourth quarter was 191.13 tons, an increase of 21.27%.  Among them, Hongshan Thermoelectricity realizes the donor 140.54 南宁桑拿 tons, an increase of 22.97%; Longan Thermoelectricity has achieved 50 donors.59 tons, an increase of 16.43%.Hongshan’s average heating power price is 151.46 yuan / ton, the same increase of 1.05%; Longan thermoelectric heating average price 194.58 yuan / ton, the same increase of 0.85%.The company’s maximum funding is 651.95 tons, an increase of 23.04%.Among them, Hongshan Thermoelectricity realized donor 483.41 tons, an increase of 27.34%; Longan Thermoelectricity achieved donor transformation 168.54 tons, an increase of 12.18%.Hongshan Cogeneration’s average heating price is 152.09 yuan / ton, the same increase of 1.23%; Longan’s average heating and heating price is 194.08 yuan / ton, the same increase of 0.72%. Earnings forecast and estimation: It is transformed into the orderly advancement of equity acquisition of Ningde Nuclear Power, the offshore wind power (Shicheng, Pinghai Bay F area) project units have been put into production one after another, and the flexibility brought by the thermal power business under coal prices, we expect the company ‘s performance to continueGrowth, the predicted net profit for 2019-2021 is 12 respectively.71, 15.17, 17.650,000 yuan, after considering the acquisition of Ningde Nuclear Power, the corresponding EPS is 0.82, 0.87, 1.01 yuan, maintaining the company’s “Buy” rating. Risk warning: uncertainty of the prices of coal, natural gas and other raw materials; uncertainty of wind power supplementary policies; uncertainty of wind power utilization hours.

Philippine Foreign Minister: Peace and Stability in the South China Sea Is Most Important

Philippine Foreign Minister: Peace and Stability in the South China Sea Is Most Important
Xinhua News Agency, Manila, August 8 (Reporter Dong Chengwen and Yuan Mengchen) Philippine Foreign Minister Cayetano said on the 8th that peace and stability in the South China Sea are most important and the Philippines does not want another dispute in the South China Sea.In response to the recent statements issued by the US, Japan, and Australia on the South China Sea, he warned countries outside the South China Sea that the Philippines is an independent and sovereign country and 北京夜网 no other country is required to tell the Philippines what to do.  As the rotating presidency of ASEAN this year, the Philippines has held a number of ASEAN related meetings since August 2.In summing up the series of meetings of the ASEAN foreign ministers, Cayetano said that peace and stability in the South China Sea are the most important. Countries have disputes over the sovereignty of the South China Sea, but the dispute cannot affect the good relations between countries.At present, China and the ASEAN countries are moving on an active track.  The joint communiqué of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Association issued on the 6th pointed out that China’s economic growth will continue to benefit ASEAN and China’s role in the region is becoming increasingly important.Cayetano further stated on the 8th that China will be the driving force for social and economic development in the region, and that China’s positive role in the region will be affected by the dispute over the sovereignty of the South China Sea.  In response to another statement issued by the United States, Japan, and Australia on the South China Sea during a series of meetings, urging the Philippines to reinstate South China Sea arbitration, Cayetano responded: We believe that the positions of other countries, but the Philippines is a sovereign independent countryOne can tell us what to do.The Philippines will decide for itself what to do in its national interest.  ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, ASEAN-China-Japan-Korea (10 + 3) Foreign Ministers’ 厦门夜网 Meeting, East Asian Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, ASEAN Regional Forum and other meetings were held in Manila on August 2-8. Original Title: Foreign Minister of the Philippines: Peace and Stability in the South China Sea Is Most Important

Yongxing Special Steel (002756): Special Steel’s profit grows steadily and expects lithium battery business to gradually increase

Yongxing Special Steel (002756): Special Steel’s profit grows steadily and expects lithium battery business to gradually increase

Investment Highlights Performance Summary: Yongxing Special Steel announced the 2018 performance report, which reported that the company gradually realized operating income47.

0.94 million yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.

93%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company.

870,000 yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.


The EPS for 2018 is 1.

08 yuan, 0 for the same period last year.

98 yuan, of which EPS in the first quarter of 2018 were 0.

25 yuan, 0.

37 yuan, 0.

30 yuan and 0.

16 yuan.

At the same time, the company announced the 2019 first quarter performance report, reporting and realizing operating income11.

85 ppm, a ten-year increase2.

99%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 10 every year.

61%; EPS in the first quarter was zero.

28 yuan; budget, the company approved the common stock profit distribution plan approved by the board of directors: 3.

With 600 million shares as the base number, a cash dividend of 10 per 10 shares will be distributed to all shareholders.

00 yuan (including tax), a total of 3 cash dividends are distributed.

6 ppm (including tax); ton of steel data: The company achieved product sales of 28 in 2018.

06 for the first time, growing by 12 every year.

2%; among them, sales of bar material are 15%.

76 Cobalt, 10 wire sales.

85 for the first time, other products are sold1.

45 inches.

Combined with the annual report data, the comprehensive ton steel content is 17086 yuan, the comprehensive ton steel cost is 14,367 yuan, and the gross profit per ton of steel is 2,720 yuan. At the same time, it has increased by 968 yuan, 804 yuan, and 164 yuan. The performance has achieved substantial growth.Manufacturers whose main products are widely used in petrochemical industry, high-pressure boilers for power stations, nuclear power, equipment manufacturing, aerospace, marine engineering, military industry and other industrial fields.

The reported emissions have translated into an upward trend in the rise in international oil prices. Orders for pipeline steel in the oil and gas extraction sector have performed well. In addition, the company’s previous fundraising projects have released production, and the company’s performance has improved significantly with both volume and price.

In addition, from the perspective of the company’s cost control capabilities, it reports the three expense ratios of the combined company4.

39%, a decrease of 1 compared with the same period last year.

91 single, specifically, the company’s management expenses and sales expenses remained stable while the company’s revenue increased significantly, and financial expenses increased only by the previous “lithium carbonate construction project”.

1.4 billion US dollars, showing its excellent cost control capabilities; new energy lithium battery business has continued to advance: Since the company entered the lithium battery industry in 2017, it has continuously accelerated the deployment of new energy lithium battery business.

According to the report’s baseline, Yongxing New Energy’s annual production of 1 battery-grade lithium carbonate project is progressing in an orderly manner according to plan. The equipment has entered the installation 杭州桑拿网 stage and will be put into production in the first half of 2019.

In addition, in order to effectively guarantee the supply of upstream raw materials for the lithium battery business, the company has successfully acquired a controlling stake in Xu Li Mining. It is expected to form a synergistic effect with Yongxing New Energy’s 120-ton / year lithium ore high-efficiency beneficiation and comprehensive utilization project for the company’s new energy projects.The development trend has advantages in cost and resources; investment advice: the company is a leader in the field of stainless steel rods and wires in the field. The ownership of duplex stainless steel and boiler tubes is well-known. The ultra-high market share of stainless steel seamless tube blanks makes the company in market segments.Have the expected bargaining 都市夜网 power.

In addition, through the company’s continuous progress in new energy lithium battery projects, the company is expected to form a “stainless steel + lithium battery” dual main business structure in the future, and its profitability will continue to increase and thicken.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.

24 yuan, 1.

48 yuan and 1.67 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level; risk warning: the boom in the oil and gas chemical industry fell significantly; the advancement of lithium battery business was less than expected.

Zheneng Power (600023): Fourth-quarter results are below expectations

Zheneng Power (600023): Fourth-quarter results are below expectations

Incident Zhejiang Energy published its 2018 annual report, and net profit attributable to mothers continued to drop6.

89% of Zengeng Power released the 2018 annual report, and the company achieved operating income of 566 in 2018.

3.4 billion, an increase of 10 in ten years.

63%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 40.

3.6 billion, down 6 in six years.

89%; expected average ROE is 6.

64%, a reduction of 0 per year.

60 averages.

The company achieved operating income of 135 in the fourth quarter.

95 ppm, a decrease of 0 per year.

09%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company2.

8.2 billion, an annual decline of 52.


  A brief comment on the multiple factors of the decline in power generation growth in the fourth quarter caused the performance to be lower than expected.

500 million kWh, compared to the same period last year 6.

37%; long-term power generation growth rate is 7.

63%, an increase of 12 over the first three quarters.

5% formaldehyde 4.

87 averages, the drop is extremely obvious.

From the perspective of Zhejiang’s power supply and demand balance, the growth rate of Zhejiang’s first-level power consumption was 8.

1%, an earlier growth rate of 9 from January to September.

12% fell slightly; thermal power and total electricity generation growth rates were 1% and 2, respectively.


7%, compared with 3 in the previous January-September.

5, 0.

9 units.

The company’s fourth-quarter power generation growth rate slowed down or was due to planned electricity and the impact of external charge arrangements.

The company has gradually completed the power generation of 1241.

3.4 billion kWh, an increase of 7 in ten years.

63%, higher than the growth rate of thermal power in Zhejiang Province6.

Six singles, reflecting the company’s overall competitive advantage in Zhejiang Province.

In addition, in the fourth quarter of the company, there were also unfavorable factors such as impairment losses on fixed assets caused by the shutdown of Xiaoshan Units, non-operating expenses caused by the separation of the “three supply and one industry”, and multiple factors affecting the company’s performance that was below expectations.

  High coal price operation combined with dual control of energy resources, speeding up the reform of electricity, and thermal power business continued to weigh on Zhejiang’s 2018 coal price index of 602 yuan / ton, an increase of 36 over the previous year.

5 yuan.

Affected by this, the company’s gross profit margin for power generation business in 2018 was only 8.

55%, a year-on-year drop of 2 percentage points.

Zhejiang ‘s power reform has initially accelerated. This year ‘s “four major industries” power sales transactions have been fully liberalized. By 2020, market-based power generation accounts for more than 60% of the province ‘s power generation, which may have a certain impact on the company ‘s power sales prices.
In addition, the province’s dual energy control policy may further increase the proportion of purchased electricity, which will adversely affect the utilization hours of coal power units in the province.

  Diversified layout development and development space The company actively deploys clean energy projects through a 20% fund share in the Green Energy Fund and a 200,000 kilowatt wind power project in Guangling, Shanxi.
In the field of “Plant +” comprehensive energy, diversified energy, user-side energy storage, incremental exchange networks and other cutting-edge power industry projects, the company has extensively involved and participated in.

The company actively guides the heat industry to gather within the heat supply range of power plants, and strives to expand the heat users to potentially increase the supply significantly.

  The leading effect is superimposed on the nuclear power layout, and the contribution of underestimated revenue is stable. As the largest thermal power generation company in Zhejiang Province, the leading effect has emerged and its competitive advantage has become prominent.

In addition, the company is deeply involved in the nuclear power industry. It is currently the third largest shareholder of China ‘s nuclear power industry. The investment income of the nuclear power sector has stabilized at about 1 billion, which has alleviated the impact of coal price fluctuations on the company’s performance to a certain extent.

  In the past three years, the company’s dividend distribution ratio has reached more than 50% of the net profit attributed to the mother. In 2018, the company’s dividend distribution plan is to pay dividends for every 10 shares1.

8 yuan (including tax), which corresponds to the increase in income of the current budget3.


As a leading company in the undervaluation of thermal power, the company’s relatively stable profit and dividends are expected to continue to contribute to stable income for investors.

Considering that the company’s asset-liability ratio is reduced, the nuclear power layout is expected to provide stable and stable returns for the company in the future. We believe that the flexibility brought by the conversion of the coal price central downstream company’s thermal power business 天津夜网 brings the company’s 2019-2021 earnings per share to 0.39, 0.

47 and 0.

53 yuan, maintaining the overweight level.

Jerry shares (002353): Performance in line with expectations maintains high growth in 2019-2020

Jerry shares (002353): Performance in line with expectations maintains high growth in 2019-2020

The event company disclosed its 2018 annual report and achieved revenue of 45.

9.7 billion, an increase of 44 in ten years.

23%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

1.5 billion, an annual increase of 807.


Brief commentary conclusion: The oil service industry has ushered in a high business climate. It is judged that the performance of the company from 2019 to 2020 will maintain a high growth.

9.7 billion and 6.

1.5 billion, basically in line with expectations, mainly benefited from the high prosperity of the oil service industry and the improvement of core business profitability.

We maintain our judgment that the boom of this round of oil services lasted for at least 3 years, as proposed in early 2018.

Judging the company’s revenue for 2019-2020 are 62.

1.6 billion and 82.

3 billion, the previous growth rates were 41% and 32%; net profit attributable to mothers was 8 respectively.

6.1 billion and 13.

6.1 billion, the previous growth rates were 47% and 58%, corresponding to EPS of 0 to 2019-2020.

90 yuan / share and 1.

42 yuan / share.

Improved certainty of expected performance, raise target price to 31 (+6) yuan / share, corresponding to 21 times P / E in 2020, maintain “Buy” rating.

The performance continued to rise quarter by quarter, and the performance performance was in line with expectations of the company’s 2018 revenue of 45.

9.7 billion, 44 per year.

23%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

1.5 billion every year 807.

57%, single-quarter performance continued to rise from quarter to quarter.

The consolidated gross profit margin was 26 in 2017.

8% to 31 in 2018.

65%, profitability quickly recovered.

At the same time, benefiting from economies of scale, the period expense ratio was 22 in 2017.

5% dropped to 15.

22%, it is estimated that the business scale will continue to expand rapidly in 2019-2020, and the expense rate will continue to rise during the period.

Among them, core business income from drilling and completion equipment14.

7.9 billion, 75 annually.

58%, gross 武汉夜生活网 margin 43.

7%, an increase of 7 per year.

07 pcts, basically in line with expectations; income from technical services in developing countries7.

9.9 billion per year.

49%, gross profit margin 11.

20%, an increase of 4 per year.

84pcts, basically in line with expectations, the boom in the oil service industry continued, and the gross profit margin of drilling and completion equipment and generator technology services business was gradually increased.

Statutory average return on net assets7.53%, an increase of 6 per year.

67pcts, judging that ROE will go further and higher.

The continued prosperity and speed of the industry boom is expected to exceed the expected contraction in supply while the steady demand is the main reason for the rise in oil prices in the first quarter.

Brent oil price broke through $ 南京桑拿网 70 / barrel again, and has increased 28% so far in the first quarter. The preliminary results are as follows: 1) OPEC production reduction has been well implemented, and OPEC production reduction rate of 105% in February;The strategy of “flowing” strategy gradually reduced the number of rigs, and the growth rate of US crude oil production began to shorten. 3) The OECD oil inventory has fallen below the 5-year average, and oil prices are more sensitive to changes in supply and demand. 4) The demand side is stable.

The prosperity and strength of the oil and gas equipment industry is expected to exceed expectations.

In 2018, we consolidated and proposed that this round of oil service boom lasted for at least 3 years. Among them, PetroChina’s capital expenditure growth rate in 2018/2019 was 21% and 16%, and Sinopec’s 2018/2019 were 35% and 41% respectively; CNOOCIn 2018/2019, they are 25% and 21%, respectively (taken as the median value of the capital expenditure plan for 2019 is 75 billion).

According to our continuous tracking of the oil service industry, it is expected that the sustainability and speed of the industry boom will exceed expectations. The company is a domestic oil service leader and will fully benefit from the high industry boom.

The orders in hand are full and it is judged that the company’s performance in 2019-2020 has maintained high growth. The company will gradually obtain orders 60 in 2018.

5.7 billion, year-end stock orders 36.

2.0 billion, although the first quarter is usually the scheduled off-season, since January 2019, CNPC has released a large number of drilling and completion supporting equipment bidding projects, and the industry is more prosperous.

Judging the company’s 2019-2020 performance will maintain high growth.

Judging the company’s revenue for 2019-2020 are 62.

1.6 billion and 82.

3 billion, the previous growth rates were 41% and 32%; net profit attributable to mothers was 8 respectively.

6.1 billion and 13.

6.1 billion, the previous growth rates were 47% and 58%.

Risk warning: the industry’s prosperity is lower than expected; orders fall more than expected.