Shanghai Jahwa (600315): Channels and brands cater to industry trends and actively adjust and look forward to gradually becoming effective
19 years of income appreciation6.
43%, the growth rate of Q4 improved and the company released its 2019 annual report, achieving operating income of 75.
9.7 billion, with an annual increase of 6.
43%, deducting non-net profit 3.
80 ppm, downgraded by 16 per year.
91%, net profit attributable to mother 5.
5.7 billion, with an annual increase of 3.
83 yuan, 2 for 10
5 yuan (including tax).
In the short term, the deducted non-profit is mainly the expansion of 19Q4 online celebrity marketing. The growth rate of net profit higher than the deducted non-profit is mainly due to the gains from factory relocation and the increase in fair value of financial assets.
By quarter, 18Q1?
19Q4 single quarter revenue increased by 10.
The growth rate of 37% in 19Q4 increased from 19Q3 mainly due to the good sales of e-commerce promotion dealers such as Double Eleven.
The previous net profit attributable to mothers increased by 35 respectively.
77%, down 29.
55%, down 80.
76%, the net profit end of 19Q4 did not appear or the revenue side improved from the previous quarter, mainly due to the 19Q4 online celebrity marketing and other investment cost transmission.
Multi-brands have different life cycles and different performances. Multi-channel development is uneven. From the perspective of brands: 2019 Herborist’s revenue is replaced by a lower number, which is flat compared to the first three quarters of revenue. The performance of the six gods is lowGrowth; Gough’s double-digit decline; U.S. and Canada’s net height decline; 25% + in the early days; Jia’an increased by 40% + in ten years; Yuze increased by 80% + several times; revenue exceeded 300 million;35% + increase; Tang Meixing’s revenue acquired by the company increases by 4 each year.
In terms of different channels, online (e-commerce + special channel) revenue increased twice by 30.
01%, of which e-commerce gains 20% + in ten years, and special channels gain 50% + every time. Online revenue accounts for 34%; offline revenue swap is downgraded by 2.
62%, mainly because department store revenue has fallen by nearly 20% in ten years, and the number of other offline channels such as supermarkets, mother and baby, and CS stores has increased.
The gross profit margin decreased slightly, the expense ratio rose, and the inventory control was good. The gross profit margin: The company’s gross profit margin fell by 0 in 2019.
91PCT to 61.
88%, mainly due to the higher annual growth rate of the new plant in production of new annual depreciation costs and products with reduced gross margins (such as facial masks).
By quarter, 18Q1?
19Q4 gross profit margins were 66.
Expense rate: Expense rate increased by 1 during 2019.
29PCT to 57.
26%, of which sales, management, research and development, and financial expense ratios are +1.
53 / + 0.
02 / + 0.
18 / -0.
Among them, the increase in sales expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in marketing growth in 19Q4; the management expense ratio remained flat; the increase in research and development expense ratio was mainly due to new product development investment; the decline in financial expense ratio was mainly due to foreign exchange gains and losses caused by changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the British poundReduced every year.
By quarter, 18Q1?
19Q4 sales expense ratio was 43.
48PCT), 19Q4 marketing expenses were extended; management expense ratios were 13.
43PCT); financial expense ratios are 1.
Other financial indicators: 1) Inventory is earlier than early 19 and early 5th.
75% to 9.
25 trillion, slightly lower than the growth rate of revenue, inventory turnover reset3.
22, 3 from earlier 18 years.
27 is basically the same.
2) Accounts receivable increased by 19 from the beginning of the year.
28% to 12.
29 trillion, accounts receivable turnover rate 6.
73, earlier 18 years 7.
29 has improved, mainly due to the adjustment of the e-commerce channel business model, and the payment cycle of the other party has been lengthened.
From the perspective of the aging structure, accounts receivable accounted for 99% within one year, and the risk of accounts receivable was controllable.
3) Net cash flow from operating activities has been downgraded for ten years.
31% to 7.
49 trillion, the main income growth rate is not high, additional costs and so on.
The first echelon brand Liushen has grown steadily, and Herborist mainly promotes the Tai Chi star series. It is expected that Xianxiao Company will be rich in brands, covering beauty, personal care and home care.
Different brand positioning, target customer groups, development channels, life cycles, etc. of the company are different, and short-term and long-term development priorities / strategies are different, resulting in different final sales performance.
1) Liushen is the company’s largest brand. The main category is toilet water (accounting for about 60% of the brand’s revenue). The main channels are supermarkets and e-commerce.
Liushen has re-established its absolute leading position in the field of toilet water and its market share has continued to increase in recent years. According to Nielsen statistics, the market share of Liushen toilet water in 2019 will be reset to 75.
7%, ranking first, an increase of 0 earlier in 2018.
In recent years, the category of shower 南京龙凤网 gels has been expanded and promoted to online, offline and other channels. In 2019, strong competition from international shower gel brands and the reduction of summer temperatures in some interconnected regions affected the sales of toilet water. In 2019, the growth rate of Liushen’s revenue accelerated to a lowValues.
In 2020, the company merged the new pneumonia epidemic, and the Liushen brand laid out a full-class sterilization and bacteriostatic function line to further enhance the Ai Ye Jian skin series (such as Ai Ye hand lotion, etc.).
It is expected that Liushen will continue to grow steadily in the decade of 2020.
2) Herborist is the company’s second largest brand and the largest skin care brand. It was founded in 1998. It has a history of brand development and relative brand precipitation. It is positioned 杭州桑拿 in the high-end and sales channels include department stores, e-commerce, and CS stores.
In recent years, due to internal and external reasons such as the decline in the flow of department stores and slower product updates, the Herborist brand has improved.
After the new chairman joined the main company at the end of 2016, he actively revitalized Herborist, reorganized the brand positioning, continued to clean up the offline department store channel inventory, entered the CS channel through the Dianzi sub-brand, changed the TP merchant online, and increased social influencer marketing.Media marketing, to create lyophilized masks, Tai Chi sun and moon essence and other single products.
Although the brand adjustment has not brought significant improvement to the overall performance, the revenue for two consecutive years in 2018 and 2019 has fluctuated slightly, but local positive changes can still be seen, such as the 19Q2 freeze-drying mask recruitment rate of 57%, and single product sales exceeding 100 million, contributingThe brand income was 6%. The actual expenditure of Taiji Sun and Moon in 19Q4 was 60 million yuan, accounting for more than 10% of the 19Q4 brand revenue.
In 2020, Herborist will continue to focus on the promotion of new products + online celebrity marketing and other effective means, and its target growth rate will gradually improve from early 2019.
In terms of products, based on the sun and moon highlights in 2019, we will focus on creating Tai Chi series in 2020 and enrich the Tai Chi series product matrix (2020Q2?
In Q4, new Tai Chi water, face cream, eye cream, etc. will be released in Dunhuang limited edition gift box in the second half of the year; in terms of marketing, the growth rate of marketing is expected to be stronger than 2019.
Guff, Meijiajing and other second-tier brands are still adjusting Gough, Meijiajing is the company’s second-tier brand.
Among them, Gough is positioned as a mid-to-low-end professional men’s skincare brand. Its sales channels include supermarkets, department stores, CS stores, e-commerce and other channels. Its traditional advantage product is men’s moisturizing. In recent years, it has expanded the men’s men’s oil control field.The market share of men’s skin care products in the offline channel of Gough has declined in 2010, and brand revenues have increased twice in a decade in 2019.
The company conducts comprehensive grooming and refined management for Gough’s multi-channel and multi-SKU features, focusing on core products, adjusting long-tail products, coordinating the benefits of various channels, and the differentiated operation of channel products. It is expected to be completed in the first half of 2020, with the goal of Gough’s steady growth.
Meijiajing positions mid-to-low-end skincare products, which are mainly sold in supermarkets. The products are mainly creams. In recent years, hand creams have been expanded to rejuvenate the brand and hand cream sales are good. According to Nielsen statistics, Meijiajing ‘s offline hand protection in 2019Frost market accounts for 13 of carbon dioxide.
1%, an increase of 0 from 2018.
3PCT, ranked first; but the US and Canadian net market share in the low-end frost in the main battlefield has declined.
High-single-digit breakdown of US and Canadian net brand revenue in 2019.
In 2020, the company plans to upgrade the United States and Canada’s pure white fungus pearl cream, tilt the cream category, promote the growth of the cream business, and gradually achieve a steady growth in brand revenue goals.
The third echelon brand continues to incubate and grows beautifully. The future development of the company’s third echelon brand includes Yuze, Qichu, Jiaan, Pianzaiyu, etc., which have maintained rapid growth in recent years.
Yuze has a beautiful sales performance in 2019, with an increase of more than 80% in revenue. It is mainly a brand positioning drug makeup. The product concept caters to the current skin care product consumption trend. It is mainly based on booming channels such as e-commerce and achieves beautiful sales with the help of online celebrity marketing.
In December 2019, the Yuze store ranked 11th in the beauty category, on the 12th day of 2019, the Yuze brand ranked 6th in the US beauty industry, the Centella Asiatica retail sales ranked 3rd in the industry, and the retail sales in January 2020Industry 6th.
In 2020, Yuze’s acne cleansing products will be upgraded and updated. It will continue to expand its influencer marketing, and it is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
Qichu brand was established in 2013, with sales channels including supermarkets, mothers, infants and e-commerce, positioning infant and child care brands, and rapid development. In 2019, Qichu’s offline baby shower gels accounted for 9 market shares in baby creams.
2%, an increase of 2 over the previous year.
Pianzai Oral Care is a brand jointly established by the company and Zhangzhou Pianzai Pharmaceutical in 2016. It has developed for three years by 2019, and has achieved profitability and transformed its performance into the industry.
In 2020, Pien Tze Huang is expected to maintain rapid growth.
The home security brand is positioned as a household cleaning product, and related products will be launched in 2020 in combination with the new epidemic situation, which is expected to maintain rapid growth.
Strategically develop e-commerce channels and comprehensively expand to respond to changes in offline channels. Currently, cosmetics companies have the highest economic prosperity in cosmetics channels. The company follows the trend of channel development, strategically focuses on the development of e-commerce channels, and strengthens e-commerce operation capabilities.
In 2017, the company’s Tmall, Tmall Supermarket, JD.com and other channels changed from distribution to direct sales models.In 2019, Herborist’s e-commerce operator changed to a more experienced one-net operation and domestic operation of domestic brands.For self-employment, achieve beautiful online sales in 2019.
Revenue from e-commerce channels has become an important driving force for the company’s performance growth, and its proportion has continued to increase.
In 2020, the company will continue to focus on the development of e-commerce channels.
The company’s traditional advantage channels are offline channels such as supermarkets and department stores. In recent years, the company has merged to strengthen offline member management and WeChat marketing, build an O2O new retail system to deal with the decline in offline traffic, and actively deploy CS stores and Watsons stores.
1) Member management and marketing: Combining explosive cooperation, the company cooperates with internally closed chain department store systems to market the company’s own members and department store channel members. The trial has achieved good results and will continue to be vigorously promoted in 2020.
2) O2O new retail system: try the new retail plan in 2018, and basically complete the establishment of physical store sales + new retail mechanism in 2019; in December 2019, January 2020, C & D overseas purchase platforms were opened, and Tang Meixing’s overseasPurchase platform.
The sales and supply chain impacts of the new pneumonia epidemic in 2020. The company’s products, marketing, and channels responded to the 2020 new pneumonia epidemic rapidly spreading at the end of January. Local governments strengthened personnel flow, and offline channel passenger flow significantly reduced.Online express stoppages are longer than in previous years (resumption of work in recent days).
The impact of the epidemic on the company is mainly reflected in the sales side and the supply chain side: 1) Sales side: offline channel resistance, most of the largest offline supermarkets (hypermarkets and supermarket chains, etc.) are operating, except for the flow of peopleSecond, the number of department stores and CS stores closed by the three major channels is large, accounting for 60?
2) Supply chain side: the company’s 4 own factories have initially resumed work, with a return rate of 50% (currently basically able to meet their own production business), but there are still a large number of ODM, OEM and raw material suppliers have reduced return rates; logisticsDistribution, etc. is expected to be regulated locally.
In response to the impact of the epidemic, the company responded in all aspects to products, marketing and channels: 1) Product and marketing: combing Liushen, Jiaan, Qichu, Tang Meixing, Yuze and other epidemic prevention related products, strengthening new product research and development, acceleratingCan be listed on the market, combined with epidemic themes for marketing promotion; 2) Channels: WeChat marketing for offline members, using the established O2O new retail system to provide home services (cooperative Meituan, JD.com, hungry, etc.)(Finally completed the sale), launched a combined package of epidemic products to increase joint sales.
Taken together, the company expects the epidemic to have a small impact on expected revenue.
Multi-brand and multi-channel leaders actively adjust, increasing brand marketing expansion drags on short-term performance, and long-term growth of brand value. We believe that: 1) the company’s multi-brand and multi-channel development, different brands have different life cycles, and face different development issues., Sales performance has diverged.
It is expected that the six gods of the first echelon brand will grow steadily in the future, and the Herborist brand will continue to revitalize, and it is expected to gradually improve; the second echelon of Goff and Meijiajing are still under adjustment; the third echelon of Yuze caters to the current skin care concept and leverages e-commerceChannels and internet celebrity marketing are expected to continue to perform well. At the beginning of the year, Jiaan and Pianzaizhu helped maintain a rapid growth rate.
2) In terms of gross profit margin, the operation of the new plant has entered a normal state and is not expected to drag on the cost side. However, due to the higher growth rate of emerging brands with reduced gross profit margin, the company’s future gross profit margin is expected to show a downward trend.
3) In terms of expense ratio, it is expected that the company will continue to expand its influencer marketing layout. There will still be pressure on the sales expense side, and it is expected that the sales expense ratio will gradually increase; the management expense ratio is expected to be generally flat.
4) The epidemic has brought pressure to the sales end and supply chain end. The company actively responded to the crisis and turned it into an opportunity to promote epidemic-related products, increase epidemic-related marketing and offline promotional activities, and reduce short-term fluctuations caused by the epidemic.Little impact on preliminary revenue.
At present, domestic domestic cosmetics companies mostly contribute to single-brand companies or a single main brand. The company is the first-class first-tier company with multi-brand and multi-channel development over comprehensive cosmetics leading companies.Short-term marketing growth has weighed on overall performance, but it has initially straightened out the revitalization model and increased brand value in the long run.
Taking into account the short-term adjustments, epidemic conditions and the implementation of new accounting standards, etc., reduce 2020?
EPS in 2021 and the EPS in 2022 increase to 0.
14 yuan, corresponding to 32 times the 20-year PE, the upper limit of the estimated level, maintaining the “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: weak terminal consumption; Herborist’s marketing effect is less than expected; increased competition for imported products.